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Problemistics - Problémistique - Problemistica
The Art & Craft of Problem Dealing
Decision
Ddefinition (Herbert A. Simon)
Classification (Herbert A. Simon)
Phases (Geoffrey Broadbent)
Phases (Michael Carley)
Phases (James G. March and Herbert A. Simon)
Phases (Herbert A. Simon)
Fix and flexible decisions (Pierre Massé)
Procedure (F. de P. Hanika)
Decisions and values (Paul Davidoff and Thomas A. Reiner)
Decision and values (Abraham Kaplan)
Decisions and values (Herbert A. Simon)
Rational decisions (Herbert A. Simon)
Pitfalls (Fremont E. Kast and James E. Rosenzweig)
Poor decisions (Amitai Etzioni)
Information requirements (M. Alexis and T. Wilson)
Decisions: decision making (Union of International Associations)
Decision making (Arthur Koestler)
Decisions making requirements (Chester Barnard)
Decisions and the future (Herbert A. Simon)
Decision as compromise (Herbert A. Simon)
The utility criterion (F. de P. Hanika)
Optimizing and satisficing (James G. March and Herbert A. Simon)
Feedback and decentralization (George Chadwick)
Requirements and constraints (Herbert A. Simon)
Choice (Herbert A. Simon)
Factual and ethical content (Herbert A. Simon)
Decision and knowledge (Hans Ozbekhan)
Chess playing (Karl W. Deutsch)
Strategy (Arnold Kaufmann)
Decision tree (F. de P. Hanika)
AIDA (analysis of interconnected decision areas) (J. C. Jones)
Feasibility program (Mickey A. Palmer)
[1965, First Edition 1945] Herbert A. Simon, Administrative Behaviour
“... the idea of a decision as a conclusion drawn from a set of premises - value premises, and factual premises.” (Chapter VII, p. 123)
[1976] Herbert A. Simon in D. S. Pugh (editor), Organization Theory
“... let us distinguish two polar types of decisions. I shall call them programmed decisions and nonprogrammed decisions, respectively.” “... they are not really distinct types, but a whole continuum, with highly programmed decisions at one end of that continuum, and highly unprogrammed decisions at the other end.” “Decisions are programmed to the extent that they are repetitive and routine, to the extent that a definite procedure has been worked out for handling them so that they don’t have to be treated de novo each time they occur.”
“Decisions are nonprogrammed to the extent that they are novel, unstructured and consequential. There is not cut-and-dried method for handling the problem because it hasn’t arisen before, or because its precise nature and structure are elusive or complex, or because it is so important that it deserves a custom- tailored treatment.” “By nonprogrammed I mean a response where the system has no specific procedures to deal with situations like the one at hand but must fall back on whatever general capacity it has for intelligent, adaptive, problem- oriented action.” (pp. 193-194)
[1988, First edition 1973] Geoffrey Broadbent,Design in Architecture
“... one collects, first of all, the available data on which the decision is to be based - in other words a list of possible actions. This is fed into the Predicting system from which one obtains a list of possible outcomes for each action, and the probability (certainty, risk, uncertainty) for each one. The data is also fed into the Value system from which one obtains a second quality - the desirability of each outcome. At this point, given a list of possible actions, the two systems have thrown up the following information:
1. A list of outcomes for each action.
2. A probability associated with each outcome.
3. A desirability associated with each outcome.”
(Chapter 10, p. 197)
[1980] Michael Carley, Rational Techniques in Policy Analysis
“The basic paradigm of decision analysis involves five steps.
The first is pre-analysis in which the problem is identified, and viable alternative solutions given. In the second step the anatomy of the problem is structured in a decision tree with decisions nodes and chance nodes. These nodes identify points in time where choices must be made, where events not under the decision maker’s control will take place, or when further information may become available. The third step is an uncertainty analysis where probabilities are assigned to the various branches emanating from the chance nodes. These probabilities are based on stochastic models, expert opinion, public opinion sampling, or the decision maker’s subjective assessment. The fourth step is for the decision maker to assign utility values to different paths through the decision tree. Finally, an initial optimal strategy is identified which indicates what the first choice in the decision strategy should be and what choice might be made at future decision nodes.”
(Chapter 7, pp. 115-116)
[1966, First Edition 1958] James G. March and Herbert A. Simon, Organizations,
Phases of the decision-making process:
1) lay out the whole set of alternatives;
2) lay out the whole set of consequences attached to each alternative, characterized by levels of certainty, risk, uncertainty;
3) clarify the utility function or preference-ordering for ranking all sets of consequences;
4) select the alternative leading to the preferred set of consequences (taking into consideration certainty, risk, uncertainty).
(from Chapter 6, pp. 137-138)
[1976] Herbert A. Simon in D. S. Pugh (editor), Organization Theory
"The first phase of the decision-making process - searching the environment for conditions calling for decision - I shall call intelligence activity.
The second phase - inventing, developing, and analyzing possible courses of action - I shall call design activity.
The third phase - selecting a particular course of action from those available - I shall call choice activity." (p. 190)
"Generally speaking, intelligence activity precedes design, and design activity precedes choice. The cycle of phases is, however, far more complex than this sequence suggests. Each phase in making a particular decision is itself a complex decision-making process. The design phase, for example, may call for new intelligence activities; problems at any given level generate subproblems that, in turn, have their intelligence, design, and choice phases, and so on. There are wheels, within wheels, within wheels. Nevertheless, the three large phases are often clearly discernible as the organizational decision process unfolds.” (p. 191)
[1965] Pierre Massé, Le Plan ou l'Anti-hasard
“L’encre et le crayon, le fixe et le flexible, le dur et le malléable, autant de figures qui traduisent le contraste de l’engagement et de la disponibilité.”
“Par leur adaptabilité aux conditions nouvelles, le crayon sauve l’encre, le flexible protège le fixe, le malléable garantit le dur.”
(Chapter VI, p. 205)
[1965, Second Edition 1972] F. de P. Hanika, New Thinking in Management, Heinemann, London
“Rational decision procedures rely on comparing the outcomes of possible alternatives.” (Chapter 3, p. 40)
[1973] P. Davidoff and T. A. Reiner in Andreas Faludi (editor), A Reader in Planning Theory
“Values are inescapable elements of any rational decision-making process or of any exercise of choice.” ("A Choice Theory of Planning", p. 30)
[1964] Abraham Kaplan, The Conduct of Inquiry. Methodology for Behavioural Science, Chandler Publishing Company, Scranton, Pennsylvania
“... the rationality of a decision presupposes certain values. We chose one alternative rather than another because we prefer one outcome to another, and it is our expectation that the alternative chosen will have the preferred outcome.
In this way there comes into play a system of ‘utilities’ - the generic term often used for values, preferences or desiderata of any kind in a decision-making situation. The decision is made according to what we expect will maximize the appropriate utility or some sort of utility function.”
(Chapter VI, p. 250)
[1965, First Edition 1945] Herbert A. Simon, Administrative Behaviour
“In order for an ethical proposition to be useful for rational decision-making
(a) the values taken as organizational objectives must be definite, so that their degree of realization in any situation can be assessed, and
(b) it must be possible to form judgments as to the probability that particular actions will implement these objectives.”
(Chapter III, p. 50)
[1965, First Edition 1945] Herbert A. Simon, Administrative Behaviour
“The task of rational decision is to select that one of the strategies which is followed by the preferred set of consequences.” (Chapter IV, p. 67)
[1979, Third Edition] Fremont E. Kast and James E. Rosenzweig, Organization and Management, McGraw-Hill
- Overdiagnosis (never reaching the action stage) = paralysis by analysis
- Underdiagnosis (leaping immediately to action) = extinction by instinct
(from Chapter 15, p. 371)
[1973] Amitai Etzioni in Andreas Faludi (editor), A Reader in Planning Theory
“Poor decisions are those which exclude actors capable of affecting the projected course of action; decisions of this type tend to be blocked or modified later.”
("Mixed Scanning: A Third Approach to Decision Making", p. 220)
[1972] M. Alexis and T. Wilson in Michael Gilbert (editor), The Modern Business Enterprise
“Three basic attributes are desired in information for decision-making:
content, reliability, and availability.
Content is related to the degree to which information is designed to serve a particular communication task and the extent to which the information supplements the prior knowledge of the decision-maker.
Reliability is a function of the way in which information is ‘screened’ and transformed by the many decisions units prior to its immediate application. Bias is pervasive - it is present in all information. One way of providing safeguards against undue bias is by formalizing multiple flows of information through a communication system." (p. 319)
“Availability refers to the accessibility of information to a decision unit, the ease of obtaining information, and the speed at which the information flows.” (p. 318)
[1986] Union of International Associations, Encyclopedia of World Problems and Human Potential
“Decision-making. A process of selecting from among several alternatives which may be either quantitative or qualitative, the best alternative in order to solve a problem or resolve a conflict. The elements of the process are derivation of a model which describes the problem, selection of criteria to serve as standards, determination of constraints that act as limitations to various alternatives, and an optimization which results in the best solution consistent with the objectives of the decision maker. The analysis of complex situations with many alternatives and many possible consequences is facilitated by the mathematics of decision theory.”(KC0340)
[1967] Arthur Koestler, The Ghost in the Machine
“The shift of control of an ongoing activity from one level to a higher level of the hierarchy - from ‘mechanical’ to ‘mindful’ behaviour - seems to be of the essence of conscious decision-making and of the subjective experience of free will.” (p. 208)
“Each step downward entails a handing-over of responsibility to more automatised automatisms; each step upward to more mentalistic processes of mentation.” (pp. 210-211)
[1978] Chester Barnard in A. Tillett, T. Kempner and G. Willis (editors), Management Thinkers
“The fine art of executive decision consists in
- not deciding questions that are not now pertinent,
- not deciding prematurely,
- not making decisions that cannot be made effective,
- not making decisions that others should make.”
“Not to decide questions that are not pertinent at the time is uncommon, good sense, though to raise them may be uncommon perspicacity.
Not to decide questions prematurely is to refuse commitment of attitude or the development of prejudice.
Not to make decisions that cannot be made effective is to refrain from destroying authority.
Not to make decisions that others should make is to preserve morale, to develop competence, to fix responsibility, and to preserve authority.” (p. 338)
(from “The Function of the Executive”)
[1965, First Edition 1945] Herbert A. Simon, Administrative Behaviour
“In a strict sense, a decision can influence the future in only two ways:
(1) present behaviour, determined by this decision, may limit future possibilities, and
(2) future decisions may be guided to a greater or lesser degree by the present decision.”
(Chapter V, p. 97)
[1965, First Edition 1945] Herbert A. Simon, Administrative Behaviour
“In an important sense, all decision is a matter of compromise. The alternative that is finally selected never permits a complete or perfect achievement of objectives but is merely the best solution that is available under the circumstances. The environmental situation inevitably limits the alternatives that are available, and hence sets a maximum to the level of attainment of purpose that is possible.” (Chapter I, p. 6)
[1972. First edition 1965] F. de P. Hanika, New Thinking in Management, Heinemann, London
Expected Utility = (Probability of Success multiplied Value of Success) minus (Probability of Failure multiplied Cost of Failure)
(from Chapter 3, p. 36)
[1966, First published 1958] James G. March & Herbert A. Simon, Organizations, Wiley & Sons, New York
“Finding the optimal alternative is a radically different problem from finding a satisfactory alternative. An alternative is optimal if:
1) there exists a set of criteria that permits all alternatives to be compared;
2) the alternative in question is preferred, by these criteria, to all other alternatives.
An alternative is satisfactory if:
1) there exist a set of criteria that describes minimally satisfactory alternatives;
2) the alternative in question meets or exceeds all these criteria.” (p. 140)
“Most human decision-making, whether individual or organizational, is concerned with the discovery and selection of satisfactory alternatives; only in exceptional cases it is concerned with the discovery and selection of optimal alternatives.” (p. 141)
[1971] George Chadwick, A Systems View of Planning
“Let us not fool ourselves that we can or will ‘optimise activities’. People will ‘optimise’ (satisfice) for themselves, and this is how feedback systems work anyway!”
(Chapter 15, p. 372)
[1971] Herbert A. Simon in H. Igor Ansoff (editor), Business Strategy
“In the decision-making situations of real life, a course of action, to be acceptable, must satisfy a whole set of requirements, or constraints. Sometimes one of these requirements is singled out and referred to as the goal of the action. But the choice of one of the constraints, from many, is to a large extent arbitrary. For many purposes it is more meaningful to refer to the whole set of requirements as the (complex) goal of the action.”
("On the Concept of Organizational Goal", p. 245)
[1965, First edition 1945] Herbert A. Simon, Administrative Behaviour, The Free Press, New York
“Choice, in so far as it is rational and cognizant of its objective conditions, involves a selection of one alternative from among several. The alternatives differ with respect to the consequences that flow from them, and an analysis of decision-making in its objective aspects will refer primarily to these variable consequences of choice.” (Chapter IV, p. 61)
[1965, First edition 1945] Herbert A. Simon, Administrative Behaviour, The Free Press, New York
“Factual propositions are statements about the observable world and the way in which it operates.”
“Decisions are something more than factual propositions. To be sure, they are descriptive of a future state of affairs, and this description can be true or false in a strictly empirical sense; but they possess, in addition, an imperative quality - they select one future state of affairs in preference to another and direct behaviour toward the chosen alternative. In short, they have an ethical as well as a factual content.” (Chapter III, pp. 45-46)
[1968] Hans Ozbekhan in Erich Jantsch (editor), Perspectives of Planning
“In order to make decisions in planning we have to deal with facts, pure, complex facts of great specificity as well as of intricate interrelationships. To deal with such facts we must not only be in possession of knowledge about their nature but of how we can use them in order to solve our situation’s problems and achieve progress.”
("Toward a General Theory of Planning", p. 142)
[1966, First Edition 1963] Karl W. Deutsch, The Nerves of Government
“The player would thus have to perform four major operations:
(1) broad provisional scanning;
(2) highly restrictive selection of a few promising possibilities;
(3) intensive development of the possible strategies selected;
(4) a decision as to which of the intensively investigated strategies to put into operation.”
(Chapter 4, p. 63)
[1968] Arnold Kaufmann, The Science of Decision-Making
“A strategy is a set of decisions in the face of all the decisions of the opponent.”
(Chapter 7, p. 225)
[1972, First published 1965] F. de P. Hanika, New Thinking in Management, Heinemann, London
“Decision trees offer a convenient graphical representation of interdependent outcomes in sequential decision situations. In the tree-shaped diagram, nodes linking the branches show the points where alternative courses of action present themselves. Circles denote points open to free choice of the decision-taker; squares represent alternatives whose outcome is derived from ‘states of nature’ where the decision-taker can do no more than estimate the probability attaching to each.” (Chapter 3, p. 43)
[1982, First Published 1970] J. C. Jones, Design Methods
"Aims. To identify and to evaluate all the compatible sets of sub-solutions to a design problem.”
"Outline.
1. Identify several feasible options in each decision area.
2. Indicate which options are incompatible with others.
3. List all of the sets of options that can be combined together without incompatibility.
4. When there is a single quantifiable criterion of choice (e.g. cost) find the compatible set of options that best satisfies that criterion." (p. 310)
"Comments. AIDA is one of the most powerful and reliable of the design methods to have appeared so far. It is intended to reduce the time that is often spent in cycling and recycling round a design problem and to reduce the risk of overlooking a compatible set that may solve what appears to be a hopeless conflict of opinions."
(Method 5.3, pp. 310-315)
[1981] Mickey A. Palmer, The Architect’s Guide to Facility Programming
“A feasibility program is a decision-making tool that permits a client to judge whether or not a project is possible or worthwhile and to visualize the scope of a potential project.” (Chapter 11, p. 198)